Sun, Apr 6, 2025·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 17 | 014 | 14 | 00 | 225 |
| MIN | 013 | 010 | 217 | 11 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:51DALJason RobertsonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 3:08MINMatt BoldyAssists: Ryan Hartman, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 5:00MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–2
- P3 13:05DALThomas HarleyAssists: Mason Marchment, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 0:58MINMarco RossiPPGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Matt Boldy · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:08MINMatt Boldy: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:20MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:25DALMason Marchment: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:56DALLian Bichsel: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:19DALJason Robertson: Interference2 min
- P3 10:55MINMarcus Johansson: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:33MINBrock Faber: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:13DALJason Robertson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steel won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Steel – Bäck – Bourque4:05
xG 0.07–0.08 (45%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Hintz – Robertson9:22
xG 0.20–0.29 (40%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Rantanen – Robertson – Johnston2:07
xG 0.02–0.19 (9%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston10:33
xG 0.19–0.72 (21%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Lindell – Lyubushkin4:22
xG 0.03–0.08 (25%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ceci – Harley3:29
xG 0.02–0.17 (10%)attempts 2–4goals 1–1
- Dumba – Bichsel9:27
xG 0.19–0.69 (22%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Boldy – Rossi9:16
xG 0.84–0.06 (93%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Shore – Trenin – Brazeau5:04
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Gaudreau9:29
xG 0.25–0.13 (65%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Hinostroza – Hartman7:12
xG 0.07–0.21 (24%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Chisholm14:15
xG 1.62–0.25 (87%)attempts 22–8goals 2–0
- Brodin – Faber17:09
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Merrill7:21
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).