Sun, Apr 6, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Columbus Blue Jackets 0, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 09 | 010 | 010 | 029 |
| OTT | 214 | 09 | 27 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24OTTAdam GaudetteGWGAssists: Thomas Chabot, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 4:26OTTNikolas MatinpaloAssists: Claude Giroux, Fabian Zetterlund · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 4:32OTTDavid PerronAssists: Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot · Bat, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 19:19OTTShane PintoENAssists: Jake Sanderson, Ridly Greig · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 11:08CBJJustin Danforth: Holding2 min
- P2 12:45CBJSean Kuraly: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:03CBJMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Monahan – Johnson13:10
xG 0.74–0.15 (83%)attempts 25–9goals 0–0
- Olivier – Chinakhov – Sillinger9:38
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli11:19
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Kuraly – Danforth7:35
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Fabbro13:31
xG 0.50–0.11 (83%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
- Werenski – Mateychuk2:43
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Werenski – Provorov2:33
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Zetterlund – Stützle10:30
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Highmore – Gaudette – Crookshank8:12
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig12:05
xG 0.40–0.36 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Perron – Batherson – Cozens10:28
xG 0.28–0.43 (39%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKleven – Matinpalo12:22
xG 0.59–0.15 (80%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Chabot – Zub2:30
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub15:15
xG 0.41–0.70 (37%)attempts 17–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).