Sun, Apr 6, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 3, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 28 | 17 | 05 | 320 |
| BUF | 011 | 313 | 313 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37BOSElias LindholmAssists: David Pastrnak, Henri Jokiharju · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 14:27BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 7:35BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Zach Benson, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–1
- P2 10:49BUFAlex TuchAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, JJ Peterka · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 16:38BOSCasey MittelstadtPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Mason Lohrei · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–2
- P2 18:31BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 1:59BUFJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Bowen Byram, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 5:51BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jiri Kulich, Owen Power · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 19:14BUFTage ThompsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:03BOSJohn Beecher: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:12BOSNikita Zadorov: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:48BUFJJ Peterka: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kulich won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestZacha – Lettieri – Mittelstadt5:11
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie10:25
xG 0.64–0.45 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 2–1
- Lettieri – Khusnutdinov – Minten5:41
xG 0.06–0.07 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Zacha – Mittelstadt – Lysell4:19
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Jokiharju17:31
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 7–17goals 2–1
- Wotherspoon – Callahan14:50
xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 15–14goals 0–2
- Peeke – Lohrei14:33
xG 0.18–1.78 (9%)attempts 7–30goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Kulich – Benson13:18
xG 1.43–0.42 (77%)attempts 27–7goals 2–1
- Zucker – Krebs – Quinn6:23
xG 0.39–0.12 (76%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Tuch – McLeod – Peterka8:06
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Zucker – Tuch – Krebs3:24
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBernard-Docker – Power12:28
xG 0.94–0.00 (100%)attempts 22–2goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin13:27
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Clifton – Byram12:14
xG 0.91–0.61 (60%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).