Sun, Apr 6, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Montréal Canadiens 2, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 04 | 28 | 05 | 217 |
| NSH | 18 | 015 | 014 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:19NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 1:40MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 5:47MTLPatrik LaineGWGAssists: Lane Hutson, Alex Newhook · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:13MTLMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:13NSHAndreas Englund: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:33NSHSpencer Stastney: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:21MTLJayden Struble: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:07MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:07MTLKaiden Guhle: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:07NSHMarc Del Gaizo: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:10MTLKaiden Guhle: Holding2 min
- P3 7:47MTLMichael Pezzetta: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestLaine – Newhook – Kapanen7:20
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Armia – Evans – Newhook3:49
xG 0.10–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Pezzetta3:56
xG 0.06–0.20 (23%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský10:56
xG 0.34–0.74 (31%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestXhekaj – Hutson2:01
xG 0.30–0.03 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Struble – Hutson5:33
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Matheson – Guhle2:36
xG 0.08–0.06 (59%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Bunting – Evangelista8:56
xG 0.78–0.28 (74%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- McCarron – Smith – Wood6:41
xG 0.47–0.08 (86%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Forsberg – L'Heureux9:58
xG 0.42–0.31 (58%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Bellows – Svechkov – Wood2:12
xG 0.00–0.19 (1%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Blankenburg15:06
xG 1.47–0.11 (93%)attempts 23–6goals 0–1
- Englund – Stastney4:07
xG 0.10–0.08 (54%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Del Gaizo – Barron11:03
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).