Mon, Apr 7, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 114 | 09 | 124 | 247 |
| ANA | 06 | 27 | 18 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:51EDMAdam HenriqueAssists: Jake Walman, Corey Perry · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 2:20ANACutter GauthierAssists: Leo Carlsson · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 7:10ANACutter GauthierAssists: Drew Helleson, Isac Lundeström · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 5:33ANAMason McTavishGWGAssists: Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 16:29EDMJeff SkinnerAssists: Evan Bouchard, Adam Henrique · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 0:41EDMVasily Podkolzin: High sticking2 min
- P1 0:54ANAFrank Vatrano: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:23ANAFrank Vatrano: Holding2 min
- P2 3:31EDMVasily Podkolzin: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:57ANARyan Strome: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:57ANARyan Strome: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:57EDMMattias Janmark: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:57ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:57EDMKasperi Kapanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:57ANADrew Helleson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:57ANARyan Strome: Misconduct10 min
- P3 2:09EDMAdam Henrique: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:15ANADrew Helleson: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:11ANAOliver Kylington: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:36EDMMax Jones: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:36ANADrew Helleson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson – Podkolzin7:06
xG 0.34–0.05 (87%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Perry – Henrique – Hyman6:24
xG 0.27–0.18 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Kapanen – Jones2:18
xG 0.03–0.03 (53%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Brown – Janmark5:38
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Walman13:10
xG 0.70–0.38 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Stecher – Emberson10:02
xG 0.27–0.10 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Kulak – Bouchard14:10
xG 0.48–0.88 (35%)attempts 19–15goals 0–3
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Gauthier – Carlsson9:16
xG 0.82–0.05 (94%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry8:58
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Lundeström – Leason – Nesterenko5:51
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Zegras – Colangelo – McTavish8:06
xG 0.16–0.52 (24%)attempts 5–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKylington – Zellweger6:32
xG 0.18–0.04 (81%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Zellweger – Mintyukov3:11
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Helleson – LaCombe2:26
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).