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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 8, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal

Detroit Red Wings 1, Montréal Canadiens 4

Away

Detroit Red Wings

1

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.

MTL winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DET1230904136
MTL0417310421

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:54DETDylan LarkinAssists: Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P2 16:29MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Mike Matheson, Nick Suzuki · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P3 10:48MTLJosh AndersonGWGAssists: Christian Dvorak, Brendan Gallagher · Snap, 0.24 xG1–2
  4. P3 18:54MTLBrendan GallagherENAssists: Josh Anderson · Snap, 0.35 xG1–3
  5. P3 19:07MTLNick SuzukiENAssists: Jake Evans, Alexandre Carrier · Snap, 0.75 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 18:38MTLJosh Anderson: Interference2 min
  2. P2 6:38DETBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 10:08DETSimon Edvinsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P2 17:41MTLAlexandre Carrier: Holding2 min
  5. P3 11:24MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Kasper
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETMTL
36Shots on goal21
3.9Expected goals3.0
71Shot attempts51
28Faceoffs won30
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
24Hits26
18Blocked shots12
12Giveaways7
4Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 3.0 xGDET 3.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 37/100 · #815 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.26 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 29% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.

MTL winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).