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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 8, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Chicago Blackhawks 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 5

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

0

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.

PIT winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI0708011026
PIT11111135527

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:44PITSidney CrosbyPPGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P2 4:45PITErik KarlssonAssists: Ville Koivunen, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P3 4:28PITKris LetangAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Conor Timmins · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
  4. P3 7:42PITKevin HayesAssists: Danton Heinen, Connor Dewar · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
  5. P3 18:13PITKevin HayesAssists: Danton Heinen, Noel Acciari · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–5
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 7:55CHIKevin Korchinski: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 19:38CHIKevin Korchinski: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 17:58PITRyan Shea: Cross checking2 min
  4. P3 2:04CHIConnor Murphy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  5. P3 18:36PITMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bedard
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIPIT
26Shots on goal27
2.8Expected goals3.6
55Shot attempts55
28Faceoffs won36
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
7Hits15
8Blocked shots11
32Giveaways23
8Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 3.6 xGCHI 2.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1271 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.54 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.

PIT winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).