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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 8, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville

New York Islanders 6, Nashville Predators 7 (OT)

Away

New York Islanders

6

Final

Overtime

Home

Nashville Predators

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.

NSH winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
NYI28252801622
NSH2122112712732

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:16NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Ryan Pulock, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P1 6:44NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Michael Bunting, Luke Evangelista · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
  3. P1 11:45NSHFilip ForsbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P1 16:12NYIAnders LeeAssists: Bo Horvat, Adam Pelech · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–2
  5. P2 4:36NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Maxim Tsyplakov · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
  6. P2 7:24NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nick Blankenburg, Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
  7. P2 12:09NYIMaxim TsyplakovAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
  8. P2 13:25NSHMichael McCarronAssists: Brady Skjei, Jonathan Marchessault · Deflected, 0.14 xG4–4
  9. P3 15:21NYIKyle PalmieriUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG5–4
  10. P3 16:19NYIScott MayfieldSHAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Alexander Romanov · Snap, 0.11 xG6–4
  11. P3 17:53NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.16 xG6–5
  12. P3 19:20NSHMichael BuntingAssists: Steven Stamkos, Brady Skjei · Tip-in, 0.10 xG6–6
  13. OT 1:56NSHFedor SvechkovGWGAssists: Brady Skjei, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.16 xG6–7
Penalties (6)
  1. P2 7:17NYITony DeAngelo: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P2 10:02NSHRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
  3. P3 8:55NSHSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
  4. P3 15:57NYIRyan Pulock: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P3 16:38NSHLuke Evangelista: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
  6. P3 17:01NYIBo Horvat: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against O'Reilly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYINSH
22Shots on goal32
3.7Expected goals3.2
53Shot attempts63
43Faceoffs won27
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
26Hits21
17Blocked shots13
16Giveaways15
4Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 3.2 xGNYI 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 100/100 · #8 of 1312 this seasonSwing 3.38 · 13 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 1% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +50 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.

NSH winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).