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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 8, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Vancouver Canucks 6, Dallas Stars 5 (OT)

Away

Vancouver Canucks

6

Final

Overtime

Home

Dallas Stars

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.

DAL winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
VAN0701051312632
DAL281122800528

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:48DALMikko RantanenPPAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P1 18:01DALMason MarchmentPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.20 xG0–2
  3. P2 7:28DALMatt DuchenePPAssists: Jamie Benn, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.15 xG0–3
  4. P3 0:17VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Conor Garland, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
  5. P3 4:39VANVictor ManciniPPAssists: Aatu Räty, Linus Karlsson · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
  6. P3 17:15DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Jason Robertson, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.13 xG2–4
  7. P3 17:39DALMikael GranlundENAssists: Esa Lindell, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.44 xG2–5
  8. P3 19:00VANAatu RätyAssists: Marcus Pettersson · Snap, 0.07 xG3–5
  9. P3 19:30VANPius SuterAssists: Conor Garland, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.22 xG4–5
  10. P3 19:53VANPius SuterAssists: Filip Hronek, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.15 xG5–5
  11. OT 3:44VANKiefer SherwoodGWGAssists: Conor Garland · Snap, 0.15 xG6–5
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 12:53VANKiefer Sherwood: Slashing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 16:03VANFilip Hronek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  3. P2 5:33VANMarcus Pettersson: High sticking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 12:33DALMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 12:33VANElias Pettersson: Interference2 min
  6. P2 16:29VANPius Suter: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 18:33DALMathew Dumba: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  8. P3 2:42DALMason Marchment: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  9. OT 0:46DALMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Suter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANDAL
32Shots on goal28
4.2Expected goals4.3
72Shot attempts54
22Faceoffs won31
4Power plays4
10Penalty minutes10
29Hits14
9Blocked shots20
22Giveaways6
4Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 4.3 xGVAN 4.2 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 96/100 · #53 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.89 · 11 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 0% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +43 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.

DAL winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).