Skip to content
Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 8, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver

Vegas Golden Knights 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (SO)

Away

Vegas Golden Knights

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Colorado Avalanche

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 79% of the time.

COL winsVGK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
VGK181406030221
COL0821906031336

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:10VGKWilliam KarlssonSHAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P2 0:40VGKBrayden McNabbUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
  3. P2 9:46COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Charlie Coyle · Backhand, 0.46 xG2–1
  4. P2 17:08COLJimmy VeseyAssists: Charlie Coyle, Miles Wood · Snap, 0.26 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. VGK Pavel Dorofeyev stopped
  2. 2. COL Brock Nelson stopped
  3. 3. VGK Victor Olofsson stopped
  4. 4. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
  5. 5. VGK Shea Theodore stopped
  6. 6. COL Charlie Coyle scored
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 2:57COLBrock Nelson: Interference2 min
  2. P1 10:49VGKZach Whitecloud: Delaying game2 min
  3. P1 13:14VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 13:14COLChris Wagner: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 15:19VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Holding2 min
  6. P2 8:47VGKVictor Olofsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P3 9:36VGKKaedan Korczak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  8. P3 10:59COLJoel Kiviranta: Holding2 min
  9. P3 15:14COLKeaton Middleton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  10. OT 4:15COLDevon Toews: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VGK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← VGK attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Nelson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VGKCOL
21Shots on goal36
2.1Expected goals3.9
45Shot attempts70
34Faceoffs won37
4Power plays4
13Penalty minutes13
16Hits27
15Blocked shots11
17Giveaways15
5Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 3.9 xGVGK 2.1 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLVGK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 75/100 · #310 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.88 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 17% (winner's lowest chance)
VGK 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 79% of the time.

COL winsVGK wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − VGK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).