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Ice Lab

Wed, Apr 9, 2025·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

San Jose Sharks 7, Minnesota Wild 8 (OT)

Away

San Jose Sharks

7

Final

Overtime

Home

Minnesota Wild

8

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.

MIN winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
SJS1103143700731
MIN21731521111844

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:11SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: William Eklund, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:16MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P1 18:48MINBrock FaberAssists: Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P2 7:29SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Jack Thompson, Will Smith · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
  5. P2 7:47MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Marcus Foligno, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
  6. P2 8:35SJSCarl GrundstromAssists: Cam Lund · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
  7. P2 12:28SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Will Smith, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
  8. P2 17:02MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Marco Rossi · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–4
  9. P2 19:48MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy · Poke, 0.26 xG4–5
  10. P3 1:02MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–6
  11. P3 2:06MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Matt Boldy, Marcus Foligno · Snap, 0.18 xG4–7
  12. P3 4:44SJSNikolai KovalenkoAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Henry Thrun · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–7
  13. P3 10:02SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Will Smith, Jack Thompson · Wrist, 0.13 xG6–7
  14. P3 19:08SJSWill SmithAssists: Timothy Liljegren, Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.05 xG7–7
  15. OT 1:01MINKirill KaprizovGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.14 xG7–8
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 2:39SJSTy Dellandrea: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 15:35SJSCarl Grundstrom: Roughing2 min · PPG
  3. P2 15:35MINMatt Boldy: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 16:01SJSWilliam Eklund: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 19:30SJSAlexander Wennberg: High sticking2 min · PPG
  6. P3 0:37SJSLucas Carlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Wennberg
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSMIN
31Shots on goal44
2.5Expected goals4.3
57Shot attempts88
36Faceoffs won41
0Power plays4
10Penalty minutes2
27Hits24
24Blocked shots14
10Giveaways17
3Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 4.3 xGSJS 2.5 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 100/100 · #2 of 1312 this seasonSwing 3.30 · 15 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 29% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +42 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.

MIN winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).