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Ice Lab

Wed, Apr 9, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton

St. Louis Blues 3, Edmonton Oilers 4

Away

St. Louis Blues

3

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.

EDM winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL1808210326
EDM0527211423

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:44STLRyan SuterSHAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Tyler Tucker · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P2 1:30EDMConnor BrownAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
  3. P2 12:39EDMVasily PodkolzinAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–2
  4. P3 0:14STLJordan KyrouAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
  5. P3 1:41EDMViktor ArvidssonAssists: Brett Kulak, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
  6. P3 5:25STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
  7. P3 19:39EDMConnor BrownGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 8:21STLJordan Binnington: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 8:21STLJordan Binnington: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 8:21EDMCorey Perry: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P1 8:21STLJake Neighbours: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 8:21EDMCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 8:44EDMJeff Skinner: Misconduct10 min
  7. P1 17:54EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 17:22STLNathan Walker: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 17:25EDMConnor McDavid: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Henrique
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLEDM
26Shots on goal23
2.5Expected goals2.8
49Shot attempts59
35Faceoffs won23
2Power plays2
11Penalty minutes21
21Hits10
15Blocked shots12
26Giveaways14
5Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.8 xGSTL 2.5 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 74/100 · #336 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.94 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 35% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +43 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.

EDM winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).