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Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 10, 2025·TD Garden, Boston

Chicago Blackhawks 5, Boston Bruins 2

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

5

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.

BOS winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI0111644521
BOS110012111233

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:39BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Elias Lindholm, Morgan Geekie · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P2 7:55CHINick FolignoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P3 3:14CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Sam Rinzel · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
  4. P3 4:23CHITyler BertuzziGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
  5. P3 4:47CHIKevin KorchinskiAssists: Connor Bedard, Oliver Moore · Snap, 0.11 xG4–1
  6. P3 11:08BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
  7. P3 19:33CHINick FolignoENAssists: Alex Vlasic · Wrist, 0.64 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 2:57BOSFraser Minten: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 16:38CHIArtyom Levshunov: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 11:19BOSCasey Mittelstadt: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P2 12:01CHIConnor Bedard: Holding2 min
  5. P3 19:20CHIConnor Bedard: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Minten won the faceoff against Foligno
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIBOS
21Shots on goal33
2.4Expected goals3.1
35Shot attempts59
22Faceoffs won33
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
21Hits32
11Blocked shots7
14Giveaways16
6Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 3.1 xGCHI 2.4 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 53/100 · #599 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.21 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.

BOS winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).