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Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 10, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise

Detroit Red Wings 1, Florida Panthers 4

Away

Detroit Red Wings

1

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.

FLA winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DET1601205123
FLA01031219431

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:13DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dylan Larkin, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
  2. P2 2:58FLAEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Nate Schmidt, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
  3. P2 8:46FLAMackie SamoskevichGWGAssists: Gustav Forsling, Uvis Balinskis · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P2 16:21FLABrad MarchandAssists: Uvis Balinskis, Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
  5. P3 14:03FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Seth Jones, Sam Reinhart · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 14:45FLANiko Mikkola: Holding2 min
  2. P2 1:23DETMichael Rasmussen: Holding2 min · PPG
  3. P3 19:33FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
  4. P3 19:33FLAA.J. Greer: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Barkov
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETFLA
23Shots on goal31
2.0Expected goals3.4
56Shot attempts75
29Faceoffs won28
2Power plays1
2Penalty minutes14
16Hits33
18Blocked shots14
8Giveaways11
3Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 3.4 xGDET 2.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLADET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 28/100 · #942 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.94 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 36% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.

FLA winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).