Thu, Apr 10, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
New York Rangers 9, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 415 | 17 | 410 | 932 |
| NYI | 010 | 120 | 116 | 246 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:17NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: J.T. Miller, Will Cuylle · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 12:49NYRWill CuylleAssists: Mika Zibanejad, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 13:51NYRVincent TrocheckPPGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–0
- P1 19:15NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.08 xG4–0
- P2 8:19NYRJuuso ParssinenAssists: Alexis Lafrenière · Wrap-around, 0.01 xG5–0
- P2 19:06NYIMaxim TsyplakovPPAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–1
- P3 7:54NYRBrett BerardAssists: Matt Rempe, Sam Carrick · Backhand, 0.15 xG6–1
- P3 10:52NYIHudson FaschingAssists: Casey Cizikas, Pierre Engvall · Slap, 0.12 xG6–2
- P3 12:37NYRBrett BerardAssists: Sam Carrick, K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.08 xG7–2
- P3 15:54NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Adam Fox, Juuso Parssinen · Wrist, 0.17 xG8–2
- P3 18:51NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Juuso Parssinen · Snap, 0.02 xG9–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 13:32NYINoah Dobson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:40NYRK'Andre Miller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:48NYRJuuso Parssinen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).