Thu, Apr 10, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Seattle Kraken 1, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 08 | 16 | 011 | 125 |
| VGK | 18 | 110 | 07 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58VGKIvan BarbashevUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 7:56VGKWilliam KarlssonGWGAssists: Reilly Smith, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 17:21SEAJared McCannAssists: Jordan Eberle, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
Penalties (2)
- P3 1:36VGKAlexander Holtz: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:40VGKShea Theodore: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).