Skip to content
Ice Lab

Fri, Apr 11, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa

Montréal Canadiens 2, Ottawa Senators 5

Away

Montréal Canadiens

2

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.

OTT winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL0521304222
OTT21421119534

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:28OTTShane PintoAssists: Ridly Greig, Michael Amadio · Snap, 0.26 xG0–1
  2. P1 4:18OTTDylan CozensAssists: Nikolas Matinpalo, Tyler Kleven · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
  3. P2 1:05OTTRidly GreigGWGAssists: Michael Amadio, Jake Sanderson · Snap, 0.27 xG0–3
  4. P2 2:26MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Joel Armia, Jayden Struble · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
  5. P2 14:14OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Thomas Chabot, Nick Jensen · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–4
  6. P2 15:32MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
  7. P3 17:44OTTShane PintoENAssists: Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 5:51MTLJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 5:51OTTDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 5:51MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 8:59OTTTyler Kleven: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 11:21OTTDrake Batherson: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 15:41MTLMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 15:41OTTHayden Hodgson: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 17:39MTLNick Suzuki: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 2:03MTLPatrik Laine: Holding the stick2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Greig won the faceoff against Suzuki
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLOTT
22Shots on goal34
2.2Expected goals4.0
46Shot attempts60
32Faceoffs won33
2Power plays3
13Penalty minutes11
21Hits18
7Blocked shots14
15Giveaways17
6Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 4.0 xGMTL 2.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 51/100 · #637 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.80 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +10 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.

OTT winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).