Fri, Apr 11, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 09 | 25 | 110 | 12 | 426 |
| TBL | 19 | 18 | 14 | 00 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh · Snap, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 4:07DETPatrick KaneUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 16:37DETTyler MotteAssists: Justin Holl, William Lagesson · Snap, 0.32 xG2–1
- P2 17:52TBLGage GoncalvesUnassisted · Deflected, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 1:38TBLGage GoncalvesAssists: Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 12:59DETMarco KasperAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 3:22DETMarco KasperGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–3
Penalties (1)
- P1 6:53TBLRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kasper won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).