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Ice Lab

Fri, Apr 11, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark

Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New Jersey Devils 2

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

4

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.

NJD winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT11015210425
NJD21304011228

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:15NJDErik HaulaAssists: Dawson Mercer, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:17NJDOndrej PalatAssists: Cody Glass, Seamus Casey · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–2
  3. P1 16:10PITEvgeni MalkinUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG1–2
  4. P2 1:05PITValtteri PuustinenPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Matt Grzelcyk · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–2
  5. P3 13:21PITSidney CrosbyPPGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Matt Grzelcyk · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–2
  6. P3 18:24PITBryan RustENAssists: Sidney Crosby, Ville Koivunen · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 4:02PITKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 14:01NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 1:00NJDBrett Pesce: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 6:22PITMatt Grzelcyk: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 15:24PITConor Timmins: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 0:00NJDBrett Pesce: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 12:00NJDCody Glass: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Haula
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITNJD
25Shots on goal28
3.8Expected goals2.9
40Shot attempts64
24Faceoffs won28
4Power plays3
6Penalty minutes8
19Hits20
13Blocked shots4
9Giveaways9
3Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.9 xGPIT 3.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 65/100 · #448 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.47 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 17% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.

NJD winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).