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Ice Lab

Fri, Apr 11, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton

San Jose Sharks 2, Edmonton Oilers 4

Away

San Jose Sharks

2

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 88% of the time.

EDM winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS161909224
EDM21401228434

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:47EDMEvan BouchardPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Adam Henrique · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:41EDMTy EmbersonAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P1 17:13SJSWill SmithAssists: Nikolai Kovalenko · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P2 5:44SJSHenry ThrunAssists: William Eklund · Snap, 0.01 xG2–2
  5. P3 7:32EDMCorey PerryPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Adam Henrique · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:34EDMConnor BrownENAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.71 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 3:42SJSMacklin Celebrini: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 6:41SJSWill Smith: Slashing2 min · PPG
  3. P1 18:44EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 0:47SJSBarclay Goodrow: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 13:08SJSTy Dellandrea: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 0:00EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 5:54SJSAlexander Wennberg: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Ostapchuk
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSEDM
24Shots on goal34
2.4Expected goals5.3
53Shot attempts76
23Faceoffs won27
2Power plays5
10Penalty minutes4
13Hits22
20Blocked shots14
18Giveaways7
6Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 5.3 xGSJS 2.4 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 65/100 · #460 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.42 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 88% of the time.

EDM winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).