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Ice Lab

Fri, Apr 11, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary

Minnesota Wild 2, Calgary Flames 4

Away

Minnesota Wild

2

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 92% of the time.

CGY winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN070625218
CGY11421216432

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 16:25CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
  2. P2 5:31CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Martin Pospisil · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P2 7:23CGYNazem KadriPPGWGAssists: Morgan Frost, Matt Coronato · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
  4. P3 7:20CGYRyan LombergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
  5. P3 15:39MINYakov TreninUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
  6. P3 18:30MINGustav NyquistAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
  1. P2 7:08MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P2 8:24MINKirill Kaprizov: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 13:19CGYYegor Sharangovich: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 15:02CGYRasmus Andersson: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINCGY
18Shots on goal32
1.5Expected goals4.5
60Shot attempts69
27Faceoffs won30
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
25Hits26
18Blocked shots24
16Giveaways12
4Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 4.5 xGMIN 1.5 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 60/100 · #528 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.46 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 92% of the time.

CGY winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).