Sat, Apr 12, 2025·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Colorado Avalanche 4, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 15 | 111 | 210 | 426 |
| LAK | 27 | 216 | 110 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:03LAKQuinton ByfieldAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Alex Laferriere · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 7:14LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Quinton Byfield · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 10:39COLBrock NelsonPPAssists: Charlie Coyle, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 2:13COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 10:57LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Brandt Clarke, Quinton Byfield · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 16:02LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Adrian Kempe, Mikey Anderson · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 9:18COLSam MalinskiAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 12:11LAKKevin FialaGWGAssists: Alex Laferriere · Snap, 0.19 xG3–5
- P3 17:20COLBrock NelsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:03COLJimmy Vesey: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 5:54COLValeri Nichushkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:37LAKKyle Burroughs: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 9:59LAKTrevor Moore: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:10LAKKyle Burroughs: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:18COLSam Malinski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:29COLJack Ahcan: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drury won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).