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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 12, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise

Buffalo Sabres 2, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)

Away

Buffalo Sabres

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Florida Panthers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.

FLA winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BUF1701117030228
FLA0921508021334

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:41BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Jason Zucker, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
  2. P2 5:00FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Seth Jones, Evan Rodrigues · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 14:47FLAJesse PuljujarviAssists: Uvis Balinskis, Carter Verhaeghe · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
  4. P3 12:18BUFJJ PeterkaPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. FLA Anton Lundell scored
  2. 2. BUF Jack Quinn stopped
  3. 3. FLA Evan Rodrigues stopped
  4. 4. BUF JJ Peterka stopped
  5. 5. FLA Mackie Samoskevich stopped
  6. 6. BUF Alex Tuch stopped
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 5:34BUFConnor Clifton: Boarding2 min
  2. P1 18:54FLAEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P2 15:24FLAUvis Balinskis: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 15:24BUFZach Benson: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 18:01BUFJason Zucker: Slashing2 min
  6. P3 2:45FLAJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
  7. P3 2:45BUFAlex Tuch: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 4:02BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
  9. P3 10:19FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min · PPG
  10. P3 10:19FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 10:19BUFTage Thompson: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 10:19FLAMackie Samoskevich: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  13. P3 15:21BUFConnor Clifton: Slashing2 min
  14. P3 15:21FLACarter Verhaeghe: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sturm won the faceoff against Krebs
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFFLA
28Shots on goal34
2.4Expected goals2.9
54Shot attempts64
20Faceoffs won32
3Power plays3
17Penalty minutes17
20Hits34
13Blocked shots11
15Giveaways16
11Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 2.9 xGBUF 2.4 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLABUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 57/100 · #563 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.72 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 34% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.

FLA winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).