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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 12, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Montréal Canadiens 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 1 (OT)

Away

Montréal Canadiens

0

Final

Overtime

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.

TOR winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
MTL02050800015
TOR01001101311135

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. OT 0:36TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 6:14TORPhilippe Myers: Cross checking2 min
  2. P2 3:54MTLJosh Anderson: Boarding2 min
  3. P2 8:46TORMax Domi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  4. P2 8:46MTLKaiden Guhle: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 8:46TORMax Domi: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 11:29MTLBrendan Gallagher: Holding2 min
  7. P3 2:59MTLMichael Pezzetta: Holding the stick2 min
  8. P3 4:10TORJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 4:10MTLJosh Anderson: Interference2 min
  10. P3 4:41MTLDavid Savard: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Dvorak
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLTOR
15Shots on goal35
2.3Expected goals3.7
57Shot attempts57
26Faceoffs won22
2Power plays4
15Penalty minutes11
21Hits24
13Blocked shots18
13Giveaways14
0Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 3.7 xGMTL 2.3 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 11/100 · #1168 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.85 · 1 goal in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3OTEnd

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.

TOR winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).