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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 12, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Washington Capitals 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 7

Away

Washington Capitals

0

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.

CBJ winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH0605011022
CBJ3838110726

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:00CBJZach WerenskiGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Dante Fabbro · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P1 4:45CBJKent JohnsonAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.27 xG0–2
  3. P1 19:24CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Kent Johnson, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
  4. P2 2:01CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Denton Mateychuk · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–4
  5. P2 4:37CBJSean MonahanAssists: Kirill Marchenko · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–5
  6. P2 5:14CBJCole SillingerAssists: Dmitri Voronkov · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–6
  7. P3 17:41CBJJames van RiemsdykAssists: Mathieu Olivier · Snap, 0.20 xG0–7
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 19:39WSHTom Wilson: Abuse of officials2 min
  2. P1 19:39WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
  3. P2 11:53CBJSean Kuraly: Cross checking2 min
  4. P2 11:53WSHRyan Leonard: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 11:53CBJSean Kuraly: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 11:53WSHRyan Leonard: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 13:48CBJJames van Riemsdyk: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 13:48WSHRasmus Sandin: Cross checking2 min
  9. P2 13:48WSHRasmus Sandin: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 13:48CBJJames van Riemsdyk: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 16:23CBJErik Gudbranson: Interference2 min
  12. P3 10:18WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 10:18CBJDmitri Voronkov: Misconduct10 min
  14. P3 10:18WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Misconduct10 min
  15. P3 10:18WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 12:10CBJJames van Riemsdyk: Ineligible player2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Fantilli
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHCBJ
22Shots on goal26
2.9Expected goals3.3
62Shot attempts59
32Faceoffs won26
2Power plays2
48Penalty minutes28
21Hits22
21Blocked shots17
21Giveaways12
10Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 3.3 xGWSH 2.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1295 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.44 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +10 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.

CBJ winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).