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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 12, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver

Minnesota Wild 3, Vancouver Canucks 2 (OT)

Away

Minnesota Wild

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Vancouver Canucks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 84% of the time.

VAN winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
MIN0120721311333
VAN16140400214

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:11VANMarcus PetterssonAssists: Linus Karlsson, Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P2 13:08VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Nils Hoglander, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
  3. P3 0:22MINBrock FaberUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P3 13:14MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Ryan Hartman, Justin Brazeau · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
  5. OT 2:47MINMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 12:40VANTeddy Blueger: Interference2 min
  2. P2 5:17MINMats Zuccarello: Interference2 min
  3. P2 11:49MINZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min · PPG
  4. P3 4:12MINYakov Trenin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  5. P3 4:12VANTeddy Blueger: Interference2 min
  6. P3 4:12VANDerek Forbort: Fighting5 min
  7. P3 4:12MINYakov Trenin: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 4:12MINYakov Trenin: Aggressor10 min
  9. P3 7:20VANTy Mueller: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Suter won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINVAN
33Shots on goal14
3.3Expected goals1.3
72Shot attempts33
24Faceoffs won33
2Power plays2
21Penalty minutes11
30Hits17
11Blocked shots17
10Giveaways13
8Takeaways1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 1.3 xGMIN 3.3 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 67/100 · #429 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.60 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 8% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 84% of the time.

VAN winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).