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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 12, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise

Nashville Predators 3, Vegas Golden Knights 5

Away

Nashville Predators

3

Final

Home

Vegas Golden Knights

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 90% of the time.

VGK winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH150527317
VGK0153727529

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:11NSHJordan OesterleAssists: Luke Evangelista, Michael Bunting · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P2 4:02VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Brayden McNabb, Tanner Pearson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:36VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
  4. P2 11:09VGKAlexander HoltzPPAssists: William Karlsson, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
  5. P3 1:02NSHJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Zachary L'Heureux, Justin Barron · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–3
  6. P3 4:58NSHMarc Del GaizoAssists: Andreas Englund, Luke Evangelista · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–3
  7. P3 18:05VGKNoah HanifinGWGAssists: Zach Whitecloud, Reilly Smith · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
  8. P3 19:58VGKIvan BarbashevENAssists: Nicolas Roy, Brett Howden · Backhand, 0.82 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 10:11NSHMatthew Wood: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 1:39NSHRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 9:26NSHFedor Svechkov: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P3 12:42VGKReilly Smith: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VGK
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackVGK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Stamkos
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHVGK
17Shots on goal29
1.8Expected goals4.7
48Shot attempts68
24Faceoffs won32
1Power plays3
6Penalty minutes2
20Hits11
21Blocked shots18
23Giveaways23
5Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VGK 4.7 xGNSH 1.8 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VGKNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 84/100 · #203 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.91 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 34% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50VGK 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +40 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 90% of the time.

VGK winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (VGK − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).