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Ice Lab

Sun, Apr 13, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa

Philadelphia Flyers 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Ottawa Senators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.

OTT winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
PHI0821411000332
OTT06192911425

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 11:43PHINicolas DeslauriersAssists: Cam York, Garnet Hathaway · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–0
  2. P2 12:36OTTTim StützleAssists: Thomas Chabot, Travis Hamonic · Snap, 0.31 xG1–1
  3. P2 17:17PHINoah CatesAssists: Emil Andrae, Bobby Brink · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P3 4:41OTTFabian ZetterlundAssists: Shane Pinto, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
  5. P3 7:33PHIGarnet HathawayAssists: Nick Seeler · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
  6. P3 12:54OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Angus Crookshank, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
  7. OT 1:40OTTTim StützlePPGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 14:25PHITyson Foerster: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 16:06OTTAdam Gaudette: Interference2 min
  3. P2 9:34OTTFabian Zetterlund: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P2 19:47PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 17:21OTTMichael Amadio: Cross checking2 min
  6. P3 17:21PHIMatvei Michkov: Embellishment2 min
  7. OT 0:19PHITravis Sanheim: Interference2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Cozens
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIOTT
32Shots on goal25
2.5Expected goals2.2
54Shot attempts67
24Faceoffs won28
2Power plays3
8Penalty minutes6
28Hits29
23Blocked shots14
18Giveaways7
4Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 2.2 xGPHI 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 92/100 · #99 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.57 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 17% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +38 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.

OTT winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).