Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sun, Apr 13, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Boston Bruins 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1

Away

Boston Bruins

4

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.

PIT winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS11321316432
PIT061909124

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:57BOSElias LindholmAssists: David Pastrnak, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
  2. P2 8:52BOSFabian LysellPPGWGAssists: Pavel Zacha, Marat Khusnutdinov · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
  3. P2 11:56BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: David Pastrnak, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.08 xG3–0
  4. P2 19:44PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Philip Tomasino, Ville Koivunen · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–1
  5. P3 17:30BOSJakub LaukoENAssists: Pavel Zacha, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 3:52BOSRiley Duran: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 10:17PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 18:47PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 18:47BOSParker Wotherspoon: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 7:11PITVille Koivunen: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P2 18:02BOSNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min · PPG
  7. P2 18:02BOSNikita Zadorov: Abuse of officials2 min
  8. P3 8:12PITKris Letang: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Lindholm
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSPIT
32Shots on goal24
4.6Expected goals2.2
60Shot attempts48
26Faceoffs won25
3Power plays3
8Penalty minutes8
15Hits27
9Blocked shots11
21Giveaways20
12Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 2.2 xGBOS 4.6 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 26/100 · #959 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.86 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 41% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.

PIT winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).