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Ice Lab

Sun, Apr 13, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington

Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Washington Capitals 1

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

4

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.

WSH winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ1101726423
WSH17013011131

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:10WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dylan Strome · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P1 14:36CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Ivan Provorov, Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:39CBJAdam FantilliGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
  4. P3 1:57CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Kent Johnson, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
  5. P3 15:48CBJDmitri VoronkovUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 1:14CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 1:14WSHDylan McIlrath: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 3:00WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 2:17WSHBrandon Duhaime: Interference2 min
  5. P2 11:05CBJErik Gudbranson: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 17:15CBJSean Monahan: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 17:45WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Monahan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJWSH
23Shots on goal31
1.8Expected goals3.7
49Shot attempts63
30Faceoffs won47
3Power plays2
9Penalty minutes11
16Hits32
12Blocked shots16
11Giveaways12
6Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 3.7 xGCBJ 1.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 30/100 · #924 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.00 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 30% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.

WSH winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).