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Ice Lab

Sun, Apr 13, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg

Edmonton Oilers 4, Winnipeg Jets 1

Away

Edmonton Oilers

4

Final

Home

Winnipeg Jets

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 90% of the time.

WPG winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM010218211439
WPG071506118

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 0:59EDMConnor BrownAssists: Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P2 6:16WPGAlex IafalloPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Colin Miller · Snap, 0.36 xG1–1
  3. P2 12:39EDMAdam HenriqueGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Evan Bouchard · Slap, 0.42 xG2–1
  4. P3 12:25EDMCorey PerryAssists: Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
  5. P3 18:40EDMViktor ArvidssonENAssists: Brett Kulak, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.70 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
  1. P1 7:34EDMJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 5:16EDMVasily Podkolzin: Slashing2 min · PPG
  3. P2 10:32WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WPG
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackWPG attack →
  1. P1 20:00Namestnikov won the faceoff against Janmark
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMWPG
39Shots on goal18
4.9Expected goals1.9
75Shot attempts41
20Faceoffs won26
1Power plays2
4Penalty minutes2
19Hits19
10Blocked shots17
15Giveaways25
11Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WPG 1.9 xGEDM 4.9 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WPGEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 34/100 · #863 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.14 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50WPG 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 90% of the time.

WPG winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).