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Ice Lab

Sun, Apr 13, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim

Colorado Avalanche 4, Anaheim Ducks 2

Away

Colorado Avalanche

4

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.

ANA winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL0906410425
ANA161906221

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:52ANAMason McTavishAssists: Nikita Nesterenko, Troy Terry · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P2 7:35ANASam ColangeloAssists: Alex Killorn, Frank Vatrano · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
  3. P3 10:05COLWyatt AamodtAssists: Martin Necas, Jack Drury · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
  4. P3 14:34COLJack DruryPPAssists: Sam Malinski, Charlie Coyle · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
  5. P3 17:51COLCharlie CoyleGWGAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Logan O'Connor · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:12COLErik JohnsonENAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 15:43ANAFrank Vatrano: Slashing2 min
  2. P2 5:34COLCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
  3. P3 0:07COLErik Johnson: High sticking2 min
  4. P3 2:34ANAJackson LaCombe: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  5. P3 12:58ANADrew Helleson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Nelson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLANA
25Shots on goal21
3.0Expected goals1.8
60Shot attempts53
23Faceoffs won24
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
12Hits12
18Blocked shots15
15Giveaways18
1Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 1.8 xGCOL 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANACOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #406 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.62 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 4% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +47 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.

ANA winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).