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Ice Lab

Mon, Apr 14, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal

Chicago Blackhawks 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (SO)

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Montréal Canadiens

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.

MTL winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CHI191915021425
MTL260915010321

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:00MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Ivan Demidov, Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
  2. P1 13:32MTLIvan DemidovAssists: Joel Armia, Mike Matheson · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–2
  3. P1 18:40CHITyler BertuzziPPAssists: Frank Nazar, Connor Bedard · Snap, 0.26 xG1–2
  4. P2 16:41CHIFrank NazarPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sam Rinzel · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
  5. P3 5:39CHILukas ReichelAssists: Landon Slaggert, Joseph Veleno · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
  6. P3 17:03MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. MTL Cole Caufield stopped
  2. 2. CHI Frank Nazar scored
  3. 3. MTL Patrik Laine stopped
  4. 4. CHI Teuvo Teravainen stopped
  5. 5. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 17:16MTLKaiden Guhle: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 17:16MTLKaiden Guhle: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 17:16CHINick Foligno: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 7:41MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 9:00CHITyler Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 14:09CHIOliver Moore: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 16:34MTLAlexandre Carrier: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P2 19:47CHIArtyom Levshunov: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 16:12CHIConnor Murphy: Holding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Greene
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIMTL
25Shots on goal21
4.3Expected goals4.2
66Shot attempts62
18Faceoffs won27
3Power plays4
10Penalty minutes8
25Hits12
16Blocked shots18
12Giveaways18
3Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 4.2 xGCHI 4.3 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 90/100 · #123 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.32 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 17% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +43 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.

MTL winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).