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Ice Lab

Mon, Apr 14, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville

Utah Hockey Club 7, Nashville Predators 3

Away

Utah Hockey Club

7

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 51% of the time.

NSH winsUTA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
UTA211212313736
NSH1152709331

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:10NSHRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:30UTAMichael KesselringAssists: Ian Cole, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P1 18:21UTANick BjugstadAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Kevin Stenlund · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
  4. P2 3:03UTALogan CooleyAssists: Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
  5. P2 4:13UTANick SchmaltzPPGWGAssists: Barrett Hayton, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.32 xG4–1
  6. P2 11:01NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
  7. P2 14:20NSHMichael BuntingAssists: Matthew Wood, Justin Barron · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–3
  8. P3 12:05UTAClayton KellerAssists: Logan Cooley, Michael Kesselring · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–3
  9. P3 18:13UTAClayton KellerENAssists: Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley · Wrist, 0.52 xG6–3
  10. P3 19:35UTAKevin StenlundAssists: Olli Maatta, Alexander Kerfoot · Tip-in, 0.04 xG7–3
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 3:49UTAKevin Stenlund: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 4:10UTABarrett Hayton: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P1 18:38NSHMichael McCarron: Elbowing2 min
  4. P2 3:03NSHLuke Evangelista: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
  5. P2 3:53NSHBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 5:55NSHNick Blankenburg: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 16:16UTAMichael Kesselring: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

UTA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← UTA attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stenlund won the faceoff against McCarron
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

UTANSH
36Shots on goal31
3.7Expected goals3.6
56Shot attempts60
34Faceoffs won34
4Power plays3
6Penalty minutes8
14Hits20
15Blocked shots12
15Giveaways25
2Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 3.6 xGUTA 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHUTA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 82/100 · #228 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.49 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 31% (winner's lowest chance)
UTA 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 51% of the time.

NSH winsUTA wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − UTA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).