Tue, Apr 15, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 24 | 15 | 06 | 11 | 416 |
| OTT | 115 | 216 | 06 | 00 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:28CHIConnor BedardAssists: Ryan Donato, Kevin Korchinski · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 6:13CHIJoseph VelenoAssists: Oliver Moore, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 6:56OTTNick CousinsAssists: Dennis Gilbert, Nikolas Matinpalo · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 1:19OTTThomas ChabotPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 2:24CHIConnor BedardPPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Sam Rinzel · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 15:06OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Dylan Cozens · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 0:48CHIFrank NazarGWGAssists: Connor Bedard · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:23CHILandon Slaggert: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:15CHIConnor Bedard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:58OTTNick Cousins: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:01CHIRyan Donato: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:01CHIRyan Donato: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:01OTTTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:37OTTArtem Zub: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:44OTTMatthew Highmore: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Nazar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greene – Moore10:34
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Bertuzzi – Nazar11:24
xG 0.13–0.67 (16%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Donato – Mikheyev – Bedard13:06
xG 0.17–0.78 (18%)attempts 10–21goals 1–0
- Veleno – Reichel – Slaggert11:24
xG 0.12–0.79 (13%)attempts 2–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Korchinski14:04
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Murphy – Kaiser2:12
xG 0.02–0.04 (30%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Levshunov2:29
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestZetterlund – Crookshank – Stützle9:45
xG 0.55–0.14 (80%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig13:09
xG 0.55–0.14 (80%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Perron – Batherson – Cozens10:16
xG 0.43–0.22 (67%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Batherson – Stützle2:00
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKleven – Zub18:41
xG 0.95–0.32 (75%)attempts 21–16goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Chabot18:41
xG 0.62–0.12 (84%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Matinpalo12:50
xG 0.62–0.47 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).