Tue, Apr 15, 2025·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 09 | 214 | 111 | 334 |
| PHI | 09 | 012 | 08 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:32CBJDante FabbroGWGAssists: Zach Werenski, Sean Monahan · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 17:01CBJKent JohnsonPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 13:26CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Ivan Provorov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:54CBJJustin Danforth: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:35CBJDmitri Voronkov: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:56PHITyson Foerster: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:54PHIEmil Andrae: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:55CBJAdam Fantilli: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Johnson – Fantilli9:44
xG 0.95–0.29 (77%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Danforth – Aston-Reese9:24
xG 0.38–0.14 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Olivier – Voronkov – Sillinger10:11
xG 0.80–0.61 (56%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Jenner – Monahan – Marchenko10:34
xG 0.39–0.41 (49%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Werenski4:42
xG 0.46–0.09 (84%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Werenski – Fabbro14:57
xG 0.62–0.38 (62%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Provorov – Fabbro3:38
xG 0.24–0.03 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Cates – Brink – Foerster8:46
xG 0.62–0.59 (51%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Tippett – Poehling – Pelletier10:15
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Dorwart7:38
xG 0.03–0.31 (8%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Michkov13:38
xG 0.62–1.40 (31%)attempts 16–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Drysdale2:26
xG 0.53–0.08 (87%)attempts 8–1goals 0–1
- Seeler – Sanheim16:37
xG 0.89–0.82 (52%)attempts 18–24goals 0–1
- Zamula – Andrae12:28
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).