Tue, Apr 15, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Washington Capitals 3, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 113 | 113 | 336 |
| NYI | 08 | 012 | 113 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:15WSHDylan StromePPAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 7:52WSHDylan StromeGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 11:36NYIJean-Gabriel PageauUnassisted · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 18:49WSHDylan StromeENAssists: Tom Wilson, Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.58 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:39NYITony DeAngelo: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:56WSHRyan Leonard: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:14NYICasey Cizikas: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:21WSHDylan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:34NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:42WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:28NYIMarc Gatcomb: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:12WSHConnor McMichael: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacLean won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Dubois – McMichael7:17
xG 0.93–0.09 (91%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Dowd – Raddysh – Duhaime7:33
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier7:59
xG 0.82–0.65 (56%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Eller – Mangiapane – Leonard6:21
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Sandin7:36
xG 0.96–0.04 (96%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Alexeyev8:19
xG 0.73–0.28 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin4:36
xG 0.36–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Fasching – Engvall8:05
xG 0.70–0.15 (82%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Pageau – Holmstrom – Tsyplakov7:42
xG 0.11–0.43 (20%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Martin – MacLean – Gatcomb9:47
xG 0.08–0.53 (13%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Lee – Horvat10:41
xG 0.13–1.15 (10%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Dobson2:38
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech2:09
xG 0.05–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock11:15
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).