Tue, Apr 15, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Utah Hockey Club 1, St. Louis Blues 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 05 | 114 | 04 | 123 |
| STL | 412 | 09 | 28 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:08STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 11:17STLPavel BuchnevichGWGAssists: Jake Neighbours, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 14:45STLJimmy SnuggerudPPAssists: Zachary Bolduc, Pavel Buchnevich · Deflected, 0.20 xG0–3
- P1 19:13STLZachary BolducPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.12 xG0–4
- P2 5:40UTAClayton KellerPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Nick Schmaltz · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 6:59STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Oskar Sundqvist · Snap, 0.25 xG1–5
- P3 17:24STLJordan KyrouAssists: Alexey Toropchenko, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 14:03UTALawson Crouse: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:53UTALogan Cooley: Holding2 min
- P1 17:47UTABarrett Hayton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 3:03UTASean Durzi: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:34STLNathan Walker: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:14STLZachary Bolduc: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:59STLMathieu Joseph: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:31UTAClayton Keller: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:31STLAlexey Toropchenko: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:55UTABarrett Hayton: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:55STLMathieu Joseph: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:55UTABarrett Hayton: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stenlund won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestCrouse – McBain – Doan12:16
xG 0.48–0.09 (84%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Kerfoot – Stenlund8:55
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Yamamoto – Hayton4:31
xG 0.07–0.10 (43%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Keller – Guenther – Cooley7:42
xG 0.04–0.15 (22%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Maatta7:11
xG 0.57–0.11 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Maatta – Kesselring3:04
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Maatta – Durzi2:49
xG 0.03–0.06 (37%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours6:12
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Snuggerud7:15
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Bolduc6:05
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko8:54
xG 0.02–0.21 (8%)attempts 2–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Parayko11:58
xG 0.93–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–3goals 3–0
- Faulk – Broberg14:12
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Leddy14:53
xG 0.17–0.64 (21%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).