Tue, Apr 15, 2025·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Anaheim Ducks 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 112 | 03 | 19 | 05 | 229 |
| MIN | 112 | 011 | 114 | 13 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:47MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 13:48ANAAlex KillornAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 8:45ANASam ColangeloAssists: Mason McTavish, Trevor Zegras · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 19:38MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–2
- OT 4:42MINMatt BoldyGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:50ANAFrank Vatrano: Holding2 min
- P2 0:54ANAJackson LaCombe: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 0:18MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHarkins – Lundeström – Washe5:03
xG 0.23–0.00 (98%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Gauthier – Carlsson11:22
xG 0.79–0.67 (54%)attempts 25–12goals 1–1
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry13:21
xG 0.32–0.38 (45%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Zegras – Colangelo – McTavish15:54
xG 0.33–0.45 (43%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Moore4:13
xG 0.44–0.11 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Trouba – Zellweger8:36
xG 0.58–0.32 (64%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Helleson – Moore5:09
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy12:57
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Foligno – Rossi7:08
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Rossi2:18
xG 0.10–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Gaudreau9:23
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber25:15
xG 1.18–0.95 (55%)attempts 34–26goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Merrill7:34
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton16:10
xG 0.48–0.59 (45%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).