Tue, Apr 15, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Calgary Flames 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 311 | 013 | 115 | 03 | 0 | 442 |
| CGY | 19 | 08 | 310 | 01 | 1 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:25VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Tomas Hertl, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 10:11CGYMorgan FrostPPAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Matt Coronato · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 14:52VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Keegan Kolesar · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P1 19:36VGKTomas HertlAssists: Brandon Saad, Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 0:32CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Matt Coronato · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 1:04CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Blake Coleman, Kevin Bahl · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 11:01CGYAdam KlapkaAssists: Brayden Pachal, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 11:12VGKBrandon SaadUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. CGY Yegor Sharangovich stopped
- 2. VGK Victor Olofsson stopped
- 3. CGY Matt Coronato stopped
- 4. VGK Pavel Dorofeyev stopped
- 5. CGY Morgan Frost scored
- 6. VGK Shea Theodore stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:05VGKTanner Pearson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:48VGKWilliam Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:25CGYAdam Klapka: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:12CGYMatt Coronato: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Kolesar – Roy13:00
xG 0.83–0.27 (76%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Olofsson10:52
xG 0.74–0.29 (72%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Saad – Hertl – Dorofeyev11:43
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 14–7goals 2–1
- Pearson – Howden – Holtz10:15
xG 0.40–0.91 (31%)attempts 10–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore19:48
xG 1.04–0.59 (64%)attempts 21–20goals 0–0
- Hague – Korczak15:49
xG 0.90–0.58 (61%)attempts 19–15goals 3–0
- Hutton – Whitecloud16:46
xG 0.69–0.87 (44%)attempts 18–22goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrost – Pospisil – Sharangovich9:39
xG 0.46–0.18 (71%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Klapka14:34
xG 1.01–0.83 (55%)attempts 22–15goals 1–2
- Lomberg – Rooney – Farabee5:39
xG 0.17–0.43 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato13:12
xG 0.25–0.96 (20%)attempts 8–24goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Weegar – Hanley20:03
xG 0.51–0.59 (47%)attempts 18–20goals 0–1
- Bean – Pachal12:37
xG 0.76–0.88 (46%)attempts 14–14goals 1–2
- Andersson – Bahl18:00
xG 0.63–1.26 (33%)attempts 19–25goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).