Wed, Apr 16, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Anaheim Ducks 1, Winnipeg Jets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 013 | 19 | 00 | 131 |
| WPG | 019 | 115 | 09 | 11 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:49WPGNeal PionkAssists: Cole Perfetti, Vladislav Namestnikov · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 5:45ANATroy TerryAssists: Frank Vatrano, Ian Moore · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- OT 1:11WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:57ANAFrank Vatrano: Holding2 min
- P1 10:59ANARadko Gudas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:32WPGJaret Anderson-Dolan: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:08ANACutter Gauthier: Holding2 min
- P3 14:31ANAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Lundeström – Leason – Washe7:10
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry8:26
xG 0.56–0.62 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Killorn – Gauthier – Carlsson10:10
xG 0.07–0.31 (19%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Zegras – Colangelo – McTavish10:20
xG 0.59–0.84 (41%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe17:32
xG 0.95–0.80 (54%)attempts 20–21goals 0–0
- Helleson – Moore11:31
xG 0.69–0.71 (49%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Trouba – Helleson2:47
xG 0.00–0.02 (5%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Namestnikov – Perfetti11:35
xG 0.81–0.08 (91%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Anderson-Dolan – Barron – Gustafsson8:31
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo12:04
xG 0.78–0.93 (45%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
- Lowry – Appleton – Tanev9:37
xG 0.20–0.98 (17%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey15:41
xG 0.91–0.43 (68%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
- Samberg – Pionk13:19
xG 0.62–0.16 (79%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Schenn – Stanley13:36
xG 0.85–0.92 (48%)attempts 19–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).