Wed, Apr 16, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 1, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 012 | 07 | 130 |
| NSH | 312 | 210 | 012 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:16DALMason MarchmentAssists: Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 13:02NSHJordan OesterleAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 13:51NSHJakub VranaGWGAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Fedor Svechkov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 19:45NSHJustin BarronAssists: Luke Evangelista, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 6:31NSHJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Steven Stamkos, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P2 9:49NSHRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.15 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:46NSHZachary L'Heureux: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 9:37NSHJakub Vrana: Abuse of officials2 min
- P1 10:18DALRoope Hintz: Interference2 min
- P2 3:43NSHJakub Vrana: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:29DALBrendan Smith: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:44NSHBrady Skjei: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:30DALCody Ceci: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:59NSHJonathan Marchessault: Holding2 min
- P3 12:13DALTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Hintz – Robertson3:11
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Steel – Bourque7:33
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 10–5goals 0–2
- Dadonov – Granlund – Hintz3:46
xG 0.24–0.26 (49%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment8:00
xG 0.37–0.48 (44%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Lindell11:46
xG 0.69–0.55 (56%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
- Ceci – Harley2:41
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Ceci2:29
xG 0.03–0.28 (11%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Bunting – Evangelista9:32
xG 0.88–0.23 (79%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- McCarron – Smith – L'Heureux7:10
xG 0.67–0.27 (71%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Vrana – Svechkov – Wood9:12
xG 0.57–0.51 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Forsberg9:03
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Barron12:55
xG 0.80–0.28 (74%)attempts 22–9goals 3–0
- Englund – Del Gaizo16:11
xG 1.14–0.64 (64%)attempts 16–21goals 1–0
- Skjei – Blankenburg10:08
xG 0.45–0.68 (40%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).