Wed, Apr 16, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 08 | 112 | 311 | 431 |
| VAN | 18 | 05 | 04 | 117 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:23VANPius SuterAssists: Conor Garland, Nils Hoglander · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 18:33VGKVictor OlofssonAssists: William Karlsson, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 7:59VGKPavel DorofeyevGWGAssists: Victor Olofsson, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 10:45VGKJack EichelAssists: Ben Hutton, Brett Howden · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 18:28VGKCole SchwindtENAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.57 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:40VANPius Suter: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:34VANConor Garland: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:22VGKBrett Howden: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:30VANMarcus Pettersson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Sasson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestEichel – Howden – Dorofeyev11:57
xG 0.68–0.54 (56%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Pearson – Schwindt – Holtz7:46
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Olofsson10:22
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Rondbjerg10:13
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore14:36
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Hutton – Korczak15:44
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague18:11
xG 0.25–1.10 (18%)attempts 10–23goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGarland – Suter – Hoglander9:52
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Joshua – Sherwood – Räty10:31
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Blueger – Karlsson – O'Connor9:03
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Boeser – DeBrusk – Sasson10:11
xG 0.36–0.35 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Hronek12:08
xG 0.81–0.55 (60%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Hronek – Hughes2:04
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Hughes – Pettersson9:50
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).