Thu, Apr 17, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Ottawa Senators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 214 | 312 | 07 | 533 |
| OTT | 312 | 08 | 412 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:55OTTAdam GaudetteAssists: Nick Cousins · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 16:35OTTDylan CozensPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 17:22OTTShane PintoAssists: Michael Amadio, Ridly Greig · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P1 17:33CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P1 19:18CARSkyler Brind'AmourAssists: William Carrier, Scott Morrow · Bat, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 0:50CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Logan Stankoven, Shayne Gostisbehere · Slap, 0.13 xG3–3
- P2 4:05CARJack RoslovicUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P2 6:32CARTyson JostAssists: Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.25 xG5–3
- P3 4:17OTTAdam GaudetteAssists: Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–4
- P3 10:01OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Dylan Cozens · Backhand, 0.16 xG5–5
- P3 13:38OTTDrake BathersonPPGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Dylan Cozens · Snap, 0.27 xG5–6
- P3 18:48OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Tyler Kleven · Wrist, 0.27 xG5–7
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:47OTTDrake Batherson: Hooking2 min
- P1 2:41CARJack Roslovic: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:25CARSean Walker: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:42CARTaylor Hall: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00OTTDrake Batherson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:49CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:53CARMark Jankowski: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:57CARDomenick Fensore: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:45CARTyson Jost: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:12OTTNikolas Matinpalo: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:21CARRiley Stillman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:48CARShayne Gostisbehere: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00CARShayne Gostisbehere: Abuse of officials10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roslovic won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov6:57
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Jankowski – Roslovic – Robinson4:38
xG 0.18–0.04 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Carrier – Brind'Amour – Stankoven10:03
xG 0.90–1.34 (40%)attempts 11–17goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestStillman – Morrow12:19
xG 1.14–0.34 (77%)attempts 16–8goals 2–1
- Gostisbehere – Walker12:42
xG 0.47–0.89 (35%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Orlov – Fensore13:24
xG 0.27–1.00 (21%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestZetterlund – Batherson – Cozens2:46
xG 0.68–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle4:51
xG 0.62–0.30 (68%)attempts 11–2goals 0–2
- Perron – Batherson – Cozens7:17
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Cousins – Gaudette – Zetterlund7:33
xG 0.15–0.26 (36%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Gilbert12:11
xG 1.27–0.50 (72%)attempts 15–10goals 3–2
- Kleven – Matinpalo13:48
xG 0.48–0.79 (38%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Jensen – Sanderson14:17
xG 0.40–1.29 (24%)attempts 12–24goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).