Tue, Oct 7, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 13 | 111 | 05 | 219 |
| FLA | 217 | 09 | 111 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:03CHIFrank NazarAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 11:06FLAA.J. GreerAssists: Jonah Gadjovich, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 14:08FLACarter VerhaeghePPAssists: Mackie Samoskevich · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 1:09CHITeuvo TeravainenAssists: Frank Nazar, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 9:40FLAJesper BoqvistGWGAssists: Mackie Samoskevich, Evan Rodrigues · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:58CHIArtyom Levshunov: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:26CHIArtyom Levshunov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:50CHINick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:50FLAA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:12FLABrad Marchand: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:17FLASeth Jones: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:56FLALuke Kunin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Mikheyev – Dach6:17
xG 0.13–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Donato – Dach2:21
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Donato – Bedard8:32
xG 0.52–0.61 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Mikheyev – Bedard3:46
xG 0.00–0.35 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kaiser – Levshunov13:40
xG 0.33–0.47 (42%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Murphy – Del Mastro14:11
xG 0.47–1.00 (32%)attempts 11–24goals 0–1
- Grzelcyk – Rinzel16:08
xG 0.50–1.25 (29%)attempts 14–23goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Verhaeghe – Bennett14:06
xG 1.30–0.49 (72%)attempts 25–6goals 0–1
- Greer – Kunin – Gadjovich4:09
xG 0.46–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell11:51
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Rodrigues – Boqvist – Samoskevich8:19
xG 0.18–0.33 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling17:03
xG 1.53–0.37 (81%)attempts 25–10goals 2–0
- Petry – Kulikov11:19
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Jones – Mikkola17:12
xG 0.94–0.81 (54%)attempts 21–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).