Tue, Oct 7, 2025·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Colorado Avalanche 4, Los Angeles Kings 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 311 | 15 | 423 |
| LAK | 06 | 05 | 114 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:48COLMartin NecasAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 7:00COLSam MalinskiGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 14:42COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P3 10:43COLMartin NecasPPAssists: Cale Makar, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.06 xG4–0
- P3 15:06LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 18:27LAKJeff Malott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:27COLJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:27LAKJeff Malott: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:36LAKJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:18LAKJoel Edmundson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:54COLBrent Burns: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:34COLCale Makar: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:54LAKWarren Foegele: Holding2 min
- P3 10:38LAKKevin Fiala: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:18COLNathan MacKinnon: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:36COLJosh Manson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:41LAKBrandt Clarke: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin8:20
xG 0.37–0.04 (89%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Colton – Drury7:26
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas12:01
xG 0.72–0.81 (47%)attempts 9–18goals 2–0
- Kelly – Kiviranta – Brindley6:02
xG 0.04–0.13 (23%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Toews2:16
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Manson – Malinski8:46
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar11:36
xG 0.68–0.62 (52%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Turcotte – Malott4:57
xG 0.34–0.09 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Fiala – Byfield – Laferriere9:02
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Danault – Foegele – Moore8:20
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Kuzmenko8:27
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Clarke10:40
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson12:38
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Ceci11:59
xG 0.44–0.67 (40%)attempts 10–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).