Thu, Oct 9, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 06 | 19 | 05 | 120 |
| FLA | 013 | 112 | 19 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:29FLAAnton LundellPPAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 17:48PHINoah CatesAssists: Tyson Foerster · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 2:19FLABrad MarchandGWGAssists: Luke Kunin, A.J. Greer · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:44PHIMatvei Michkov: Tripping2 min
- P1 1:00FLAEvan Rodrigues: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:54FLALuke Kunin: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:55PHIChristian Dvorak: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:37PHITrevor Zegras: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:57PHIChristian Dvorak: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:44PHITyson Foerster: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Brink – Foerster10:59
xG 0.90–0.09 (91%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Abols5:54
xG 0.15–0.13 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Konecny – Tippett – Zegras9:56
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Couturier – Dvorak – Michkov11:53
xG 0.26–0.60 (30%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Sanheim15:06
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Drysdale2:23
xG 0.14–0.01 (94%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Zamula – Drysdale5:55
xG 0.17–0.22 (43%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell12:11
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Marchand – Verhaeghe – Bennett10:07
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Greer – Kunin – Gadjovich6:46
xG 0.14–0.15 (47%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Boqvist – Samoskevich9:28
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForsling – Mikkola2:06
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Jones – Forsling4:57
xG 0.11–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Jones – Mikkola9:42
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).