Thu, Oct 9, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 1, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 07 | 15 | 118 |
| VAN | 18 | 08 | 410 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:53VANKiefer SherwoodAssists: Drew O'Connor · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 2:54VANFilip ChytilGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 8:53VANFilip ChytilAssists: Arshdeep Bains · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 11:43VANJonathan LekkerimäkiAssists: Evander Kane, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P3 13:06CGYMorgan FrostAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Joel Farabee · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 17:06VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson, Jake DeBrusk · Snap, 0.05 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:25VANJonathan Lekkerimäki: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:50CGYJake Bean: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:20CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:33VANElias Pettersson: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:01CGYBrayden Pachal: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:52VANDrew O'Connor: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 0:35VANFilip Chytil: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:17CGYMatt Coronato: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:24VANKiefer Sherwood: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:24CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Coronato – Gridin7:13
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary7:14
xG 0.23–0.10 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Frost – Farabee – Sharangovich7:47
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Klapka5:47
xG 0.11–0.13 (45%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBean – Pachal6:44
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bean2:53
xG 0.18–0.14 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Hanley – Pachal3:09
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – DeBrusk – Pettersson5:33
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Garland – Chytil – Bains7:17
xG 0.15–0.20 (42%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Sherwood – O'Connor – Räty7:50
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Kane – Lekkerimäki – Cootes2:58
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Forbort – Pettersson9:49
xG 0.11–0.08 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Hughes – Pettersson2:09
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Hronek – Hughes12:42
xG 0.57–0.56 (50%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).