Sat, Oct 11, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Los Angeles Kings 2, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 09 | 212 | 011 | 232 |
| WPG | 114 | 18 | 15 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:48WPGAlex IafalloPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 0:50LAKMikey AndersonAssists: Drew Doughty, Adrian Kempe · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 9:12LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Anze Kopitar, Andrei Kuzmenko · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 18:57WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Morgan Barron · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 11:47WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Gabriel Vilardi · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:25LAKQuinton Byfield: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:26LAKJeff Malott: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:26WPGLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:17LAKBrian Dumoulin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:10LAKAlex Laferriere: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:30WPGDylan DeMelo: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:52WPGKyle Connor: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:31WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:48LAKJoel Armia: Holding2 min
- P3 16:30WPGNeal Pionk: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:42WPGTanner Pearson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Byfield
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Kuzmenko10:33
xG 0.73–0.11 (87%)attempts 19–7goals 2–0
- Armia – Fiala – Byfield3:38
xG 0.23–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Armia – Turcotte – Malott3:53
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Fiala – Byfield – Laferriere6:03
xG 0.16–0.32 (34%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson14:04
xG 0.60–0.13 (82%)attempts 23–9goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Clarke13:12
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Ceci10:53
xG 0.02–0.60 (2%)attempts 4–18goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi11:37
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Toews – Iafallo – Chibrikov7:12
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Pearson – Barron – Koepke7:04
xG 0.14–0.27 (33%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Niederreiter – Namestnikov8:10
xG 0.05–0.40 (12%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStanley – Pionk3:01
xG 0.07–0.02 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Morrissey2:42
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stanley6:50
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).