Sat, Oct 11, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 2, Florida Panthers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 07 | 113 | 228 |
| FLA | 29 | 29 | 29 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:08FLABrad MarchandAssists: Seth Jones, Gustav Forsling · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 9:54FLAEvan RodriguesAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 17:33OTTShane PintoAssists: Ridly Greig · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 0:35FLAAaron EkbladPPGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 18:28FLAAnton LundellPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Carter Verhaeghe · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 5:29FLAMackie SamoskevichPPAssists: Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–5
- P3 11:14FLASam ReinhartAssists: Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–6
- P3 17:35OTTShane PintoAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:33FLAMackie Samoskevich: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:01OTTRidly Greig: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:38OTTMichael Amadio: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:03OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:42OTTThomas Chabot: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 12:41FLASam Bennett: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Pinto – Greig6:30
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 2–1
- Perron – Amadio – Cozens10:26
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Tkachuk – Stützle10:05
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Cousins – Amadio2:15
xG 0.07–0.03 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sebrango – Matinpalo14:28
xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub12:42
xG 0.32–0.53 (38%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Jensen – Chabot14:55
xG 0.86–1.15 (43%)attempts 17–19goals 2–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell10:23
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Rodrigues – Boqvist – Samoskevich8:55
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Marchand – Verhaeghe – Bennett8:46
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Greer – Kunin – Gadjovich9:20
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling14:32
xG 1.05–0.69 (60%)attempts 16–15goals 2–1
- Jones – Mikkola11:53
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Petry – Balinskis14:39
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).